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Figure 1: an Inuit hunter (source)
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At the height of winter, average surface temperatures can reach -50°C across the Arctic region, and over centuries, societies have evolved and adapted to this extreme cold and these barren lands. It is a way of living which has been moulded by the elements; from hunting narwhals to driving dogsleds, polar bear fur coats to whale-meat delicacies. But not even these societies are immune to the effects of today's changing climate as was reported by National Geographic last month. For the 4 million occupants of the Arctic region, melting sea ice and retreating glaciers are threatening their traditional way of life. Having considered how past climate change in Greenland exacerbated the collapse of the Norse colony, this blog will explore the effects of the present day climate change on today's Arctic societies.
Arctic temperatures have increased at a rate well above the average global rates, with a rise of 3°C observed in some parts of Northern Alaska (Hartmann et al., 2013). Ice loss from Greenland has substantially increased from an average rate of 34 gigatonne per year between 1992 and 2001 to 215 gigatonne per year between 2002 and 2011 (Vaughan et al., 2013), contributing together with thermal expansion to the 0.19m rise in global average sea level since 1901 (Rhein et al., 2013). The observed polar amplification of temperatures in the Arctic and positive feedback mechanisms will only amplify future warming.
A recent study by Fyke et al. (2014) highlights how reducing polar amplification will play a critical role in constraining the deglaciation of the Greenland ice-sheet and the contribution to sea level rise in a higher CO2 world. The study used an ice-sheet/climate model to simulate the behaviour of the ice-sheet under different climate scenarios and concluded that under a 840ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the Greenland ice-sheet would reduce to 40% of its original volume within 500 years with the greatest melt occurring in western Greenland (figure 2). Uncertainties with climate models cascade through the simulation and reduce the reliability of the results, but nonetheless, they provide a rough prediction of a possible future scenario.
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| Figure 2: Snapshots of the reduction in the Greenland ice-sheet simulated under a 840ppm of atmospheric CO2. (source) |
As a result of the present day melting and the rapidly retreating ice, the loss of land from sea level rise and the thinning ice is making fishing dangerous and unpredictable. Species of fish not normally seen in the Arctic region, including the Pacific salmon, has been observed, while the decrease in native animals, including the narwhales, is threatening food security. The winter season has lengthened and the formation of thick sea ice has shortened the hunting season.
But as was seen with the collapse of the Norse colony, social instabilities cannot be solely blamed on climate change. Referring back to the five common factors driving the collapse of societies identified by Diamond (2005), the interaction between various factors including socio-economic and political factors makes the story more complex, and climate change can be seen to only worsen the issue already present in societies. And this is seen in the Arctic communities today, the traditional hunting and fishing economy cannot sustain the modern comforts which have become important to some of the people. Young people are moving away from small fishing villages to towns and cities in search of stable jobs as economic and social pressures are forcing the abandonment of settlements and a decline in population. Climate change is aggravating these problems.
Last Sunday in the London Climate March, a group of Sami people (or Laplanders) from the northern-most regions of Scandinavia took to the stage in an attempt to bring attention towards their fight against climate change by singing a traditional song as seen in the YouTube clip below. These indigenous tribes of the Arctic region are fighting to preserve their unique way of life at the frontline against climate change.