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| Figure 1: A rescue scene from the streets of Carlisle (source) |
Over the Christmas period, large parts of the British Isles were battered by the latest 1/100 year storm event, Storm Frank, which caused widespread flooding and extensive damages across the UK. Britain saw high winds, flood defenses being breached, thousands evacuated from their homes and record breaking water levels. A large section of a bridge in the town of Todcaster collapsed under the force of the River Ouse, isolating a section of the community for hours which caused social stress and instability (see video below). Cumbria was hit badly as over 3,500 homes were evacuated according to the Observer, and Capel Currig saw 201.6mm of rain fall over 48 hour period between Christmas Day and Boxing Day. This all comes following the mildest December in the UK since records began in 1910 as an average of 9.5°C was observed for December according to the MetOffice. This was 4.8°C warmer than the average and 2.8*C higher than the second highest average set in 1938.
Can we blame global warming? Based on the fundamental laws of thermodynamics and the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, which states that warmer air can hold more water, climate models predict that in the future warmer world, dry areas will become drier and wet areas will become wetter. A recent study published in Science compared ocean surface salinity between 1950 and 2000 to establish a relationship between ocean salinity, rainfall and evaporation and used this to build hydrological climate models. Durack et al. (2012) found that over the designated 50 year period, the global cycle of rainfall and evaporation has accelerated by four per cent due to the enhancement in rainfall and evaporation. The study warns how future changes will not be uniform, and that 'changes to the global cycle and the corresponding redistribution of rainfall will affect food availability, stability, access and utilisation.'.
It is possible that Britain is beginning to experience the direct impacts of climate change. As global warming increases in the future, the hydrological cycle is predicted to continue to increase, bringing more rain to already wet areas, and less rain to already dry areas. It is crucial that the Government invests in planning and preparation of flood defenses and coping strategies in an attempt to reduce future impacts of storm events and social instability.